Poland has strengthened its air defence measures after a series of alleged violations of its airspace in recent weeks.

On September 17, the Polish Air Force began precautionary patrols intended to protect the eastern section of the country’s airspace.

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Warsaw has directly accused Russia, while Moscow has rejected claims that it is deliberately threatening NATO countries.

“In response to the latest Russian provocations and aggressive actions, I have decided to reinforce the protection of our airspace. We are expanding the activity of our air force, including F-16 jets and helicopters,” Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on social media.

The patrols were accompanied by a broader political message.

“I want to outline for the public the most likely scenario for the coming months, because it assumes serious developments and demands concentration, responsibility and psychological readiness for difficult tests,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.

“Intelligence assessments indicate that the Russian plan may also include hybrid drone and missile attacks against states supporting Ukraine, including Poland,” he told parliament. “Such possibilities have been discussed for a long time, but the information now is consistent and, regrettably, persuasive.”

He said the apparent purpose of the suspected incursions was “to reduce the willingness of NATO countries to enforce alliance obligations if any member is attacked”.

Several days later, on September 23, Poland said an Mi-8 helicopter crossed into Polish airspace from Kaliningrad for 42 seconds.

“Russia is again testing the preparedness of our air defence,” Poland’s Armed Forces Operational Command said.

Poland’s most serious allegation involved a Russian Su-24 reconnaissance aircraft in the Baltic Sea in February 2025, an episode that Russia reportedly acknowledged.

Over the previous week, suspected Russian drones were reportedly downed twice in Moldova and once in Romania on September 24.

Poland and Romania are NATO members bordering Ukraine and serve as important routes for military equipment and visiting Western officials. Hungary also borders Ukraine and belongs to NATO, but has not permitted military supplies to cross its territory.

The latest reported airspace incidents have revived concerns about a possible direct Russian attack on NATO territory, a risk European intelligence leaders have discussed since January 2024.

Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka said this week that a Russian operation, potentially involving a limited incursion, false-flag activity or a major influence campaign, could occur within “months rather than years”.

Russian claims and the situation on the ground

During the past week, Russian authorities said their forces had taken several settlements in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence said on September 19 that its troops had captured 5,300 square kilometres (2,050 square miles) and more than 220 settlements in Ukraine since the start of 2026.

Moscow launched drone attacks on Ukrainian cities every night that week and used missiles alongside drones on September 19, 22 and 24, killing at least eight people and wounding dozens more. Those killed included a cleric at a monastery in Kherson. Two others died after Russia fired three waves of ballistic missiles at Kyiv, including near a maternity clinic.

“Since the start of this year, Russia has used more than 2,100 missiles of different types against Ukraine. More than 950 were ballistic missiles,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the United Nations General Assembly. He said Russia had also launched 63,000 drones against the country during the same period.

“We have to slow this down before it reaches the next stage,” he said. “Because next year, there is a genuine possibility that AI, not only people, will start making decisions on the battlefield.”

The Institute for the Study of War, which tracks territorial shifts using geolocated open-source material, said Russian assertions of major gains were heavily exaggerated.

Its assessment found that Russia had gained a net 147.7sq km (57sq miles) during the first eight months of 2026, its weakest result of the war. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, had retaken at least 972.56sq km (375sq miles) from Russian occupation during that time.

Those Ukrainian operations took place near Oleksandrivka along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border and around Lyman in northern Donetsk.

Ukrainian officials said the Lyman mission, named Operation Vivaldi, liberated 50sq km (20sq miles) in its second phase over recent days.

“Artillery and drone units struck enemy command centres, communications facilities, logistics routes, crossings and reserves. Air defence and electronic warfare systems formed a protective shield over the combat zone. The disoriented enemy could not understand the operational plan, while our troops secured the liberated positions,” the Third Army Corps said.

Russia’s election and the war narrative

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Party won the Duma elections, increasing its representation from 315 seats to 355 in the 450-member chamber.

Russian officials portrayed the expected result as public approval of Putin’s war against Ukraine.

“I have no doubt that the result will demonstrate the commitment of our parties and voters to the course set by the president, both inside the country and in foreign policy,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said before the vote.

“We will continue supporting the president’s course and work to bring victory over the enemies of the Fatherland closer,” Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, wrote on social media.

Ukraine carried out what was described as its largest combined air attack of the war on the final day of Russia’s parliamentary elections.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on September 20 that Russian air defences had intercepted more than 1,600 Ukrainian drones during the previous 24 hours, including at least 450 reportedly aimed at Moscow.

Some drones reportedly penetrated air defences, forcing Moscow’s oil refinery to halt operations for the second time this year. Online footage showed several fires, indicating that multiple strikes may have succeeded.

Ukraine also targeted the Kuybyshev refinery in Samara and the Bashneft refinery in Bashkortostan during the week.