Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit China this weekend for what the Kremlin has described as a “remarkably significant” trip to one of Russia’s most essential partners, coming at a pivotal moment in discussions surrounding the Ukraine conflict.

During this nearly week-long journey — unusually lengthy for the Russian president — Putin will take part in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, hold private meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and attend China’s Victory Day military parade in Beijing. The event commemorates 80 years since Japan’s defeat in World War II and will feature prominent international guests, including North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and leaders from Iran and Cuba, with Putin anticipated to be the main guest of honor.

According to experts, a central focus of the discussions between the two presidents will be reaching a common stance on the war in Ukraine, particularly in light of American efforts to bring the conflict to an end.

“This visit provides a crucial moment to assess where the conflict is heading and whether any resolution is on the horizon,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.

Gabuev noted that Moscow is seeking clarity on whether China will continue offering support, and how Beijing may respond to any US overtures urging it to pressure Russia into de-escalating the war.

“Both leaders need to ensure they share a consistent understanding. Their relationship has increasingly revolved around this conflict,” he explained.

Throughout the Ukraine war, China has become an indispensable economic partner for Russia, while Ukraine has criticized Beijing for what it sees as direct assistance to Moscow’s military campaign.

Trade between the two countries surpassed $240 billion last year, a substantial increase from levels prior to the 2022 invasion. China has now become the top importer of Russian oil and coal and is poised to overtake Europe as Russia’s main buyer of natural gas.

Gabuev remarked that this economic reliance on China is expected to persist, regardless of how or when the war ends. “Russia wants to understand if China is poised to commit to larger, longer-term energy partnerships,” he said.

While trade numbers hit historic highs this year, recent declines in Russian oil exports to China have caused concern in Moscow. Putin will likely look to reverse this trend during his trip, with potential negotiations expected around the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline and the expansion of their current oil infrastructure.

Military cooperation between the two nations will also be a likely topic during the talks, a growing partnership that has raised concerns among Western countries.

Although China has not offered Russia direct weaponry, US officials claim that about 70% of the machine tools and 90% of the semiconductors essential to reconstruct Russia’s military capabilities have come from Chinese suppliers. In exchange, China may be gaining access to specialized Russian defense technologies.

While China maintains it is a neutral party in the Ukraine conflict, the relationship between Beijing and Moscow has strengthened notably since the war started.

Russia has proposed that China play a role as a security guarantor for Ukraine — an idea that dates back to early negotiations in Turkey in 2022 — though it is viewed skeptically by Kyiv.

The visit will be rich with political symbolism. Putin and Xi are expected to sit side-by-side during the military parade in Beijing on September 3, an echo of the May 9 Victory Day events in Moscow, where Xi was honored as Chinese troops marched through Red Square beside Russian soldiers.

Analysts view the celebration in Tiananmen Square, akin to Russia’s own Victory Day commemorations, as an opportunity for China to affirm its standing as a global power by recalling its wartime achievements.

“Both Russia and China share a historical outlook, portraying themselves as victorious powers of World War II. This mutual narrative has become a foundational element of their alliance,” said Vasiliy Kashin of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Kashin added that Kim Jong-un’s attendance may help ease any uneasiness related to Russia’s increasingly close ties with North Korea, a shift that has been met with some discomfort in Beijing.

China has historically been North Korea’s chief ally, but its influence has declined since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Kim has reportedly offered military support to Russia, while Moscow has provided North Korea with advanced missile and drone technologies.

“With Kim being invited to Beijing, China appears to be exploring ways to revitalize its relationship with Pyongyang,” Kashin noted.

Putin’s trip will be watched attentively in Washington, where efforts have been made to weaken the Russia-China bond and bring Moscow closer to the West.

However, most experts remain doubtful that the two countries will drift apart. “The Russia-China relationship is deeply rooted,” Kashin said. “A scenario where either country turns against the other is simply not realistic.”

The timing of the leaders’ meeting also reflects their strengthened positions. China has successfully avoided rekindling a trade war with the United States, which recently extended a trade truce for another three months to prevent renewed economic tensions. Simultaneously, Beijing introduced export controls on critical materials, posing risks to American manufacturing.

The US has also opted not to impose secondary sanctions on China over its energy trade with Russia, focusing instead on India in its recent enforcement actions.

Meanwhile, Russia has defied US demands to scale back its military campaign, maintaining hardline positions and intensifying operations in Ukraine.

Notably, US pressure on Xi to mediate an end to the war has been minimal. Observers say that although China would prefer the conflict to end, its priority remains preserving trade and diplomatic advantages with Russia.

“Beijing understands that peace talks have little chance of success given the deep divide between Russia and Ukraine,” Gabuev said. “No one is pressing China to really intervene, and that suits its strategy of symbolic diplomacy while taking little concrete action.”