July 9 - President Vladimir Putin is dismissing appeals to open peace talks with Kyiv, according to three individuals close to the Kremlin, as Ukraine’s recent drone attacks on Russian oil facilities and ports appear to have reinforced his determination to continue the war.

Two of the sources, who requested anonymity, said Putin is more inclined to intensify military operations as the conflict enters its fifth year. One person who regularly meets with the president described a “strong likelihood” that fighting will escalate in the months ahead.

The remarks follow statements by U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this week suggesting that Putin wanted the war to end and that a settlement was “closer than many think.” Trump spoke separately by phone with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week and later met Zelenskiy at the NATO summit, where the Ukrainian leader said they had explored proposals aimed at advancing peace.

The White House did not immediately comment.

One individual familiar with Putin’s thinking said the president remains firmly committed to securing full control of the remaining parts of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, where Russian progress has slowed this year. According to this source, Putin recently rejected suggestions from advisers who proposed freezing the conflict along current front lines. Another source said Putin is convinced Russian forces will ultimately capture the rest of Donbas.

In June, Putin publicly declined Zelenskiy’s proposal for direct talks and a ceasefire.

“Russia remains open to a peaceful outcome, but it retains sufficient capacity to pursue its objectives independently and continue the special military operation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when asked for comment.

A senior Ukrainian official, responding on behalf of Zelenskiy’s office, said Kyiv’s intelligence assessments in recent months indicate that Moscow is preparing for additional military measures rather than negotiations, including potential new offensives in Ukraine or even actions targeting another European nation.

Several Western defense analysts argue that achieving full control of Donbas would likely require Russia to implement a compulsory draft of military-age men, a politically sensitive measure Putin has avoided since the early stages of the invasion.

Russian military commentators have increasingly spoken publicly about escalation, including scenarios involving strikes on European sites such as NATO installations in the Baltic states.

Such moves would risk a direct clash with the U.S.-led alliance and test NATO’s collective defense principle, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all.

According to defense analyst Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute in London, Moscow might attempt limited strikes designed to create divisions within NATO, similar to a recent drone incident affecting Romania.

“The objective would not necessarily be outright war with NATO,” Watling said, “but rather to generate disagreement within the alliance over how to respond.” He added that rising tensions with NATO could also provide domestic political cover for broader military mobilization in Russia.

Ongoing attacks on oil refineries, ports, and fuel depots in Russia and in Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine have triggered significant fuel shortages, making the effects of the war more tangible for Russian citizens. Although Putin’s approval ratings remain relatively strong, recent polling indicates they have fallen to their lowest levels since the invasion began in 2022.

Ukraine’s supporters argue that recent battlefield developments suggest shifting momentum and have renewed calls for tougher economic sanctions to pressure Moscow.

However, one source who frequently meets Putin said Ukraine’s recent operations have hardened his resolve and increased his desire to respond forcefully.

Over the past week, Russian forces have carried out two large-scale drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kyiv, resulting in dozens of civilian deaths. Moscow has stated that the attacks targeted military infrastructure.

In televised remarks to senior officers last week, Putin said Ukrainian strikes on energy assets justified expanding Russian control along the border beyond Donbas to create what he described as a “security buffer.”

Andrei Ilnitsky, a former Russian defense ministry official, wrote in a June 29 newspaper column that escalation could begin with the destruction of roughly 30 major industrial facilities in Ukraine, including a steel plant and the port of Odesa.

Russian strikes have already caused extensive damage to Ukrainian businesses and port infrastructure. Repeated attacks on power stations have also disrupted production and exports.

Ilnitsky suggested that a subsequent phase might involve targeting NATO bases in the Baltic states and Romania, as well as European Union facilities manufacturing long-range drones and missiles supplied to Ukraine.

Responding to questions about Ilnitsky’s article, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Russia must reinforce its own security and cannot ignore what he described as Europe’s growing militarization.

Discussion of possible escalation comes as Russia’s slower advances on the battlefield raise concerns about the time and losses required to secure full control of Donbas.

Since the full-scale invasion began in early 2022, an estimated two million troops have been killed, wounded, or gone missing, including approximately 1.4 million Russians, according to a recent assessment by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv publishes official casualty figures.

Along the 1,200-kilometer front line, Russian forces have struggled to make substantial gains this year, as Ukrainian drone capabilities offset Russia’s numerical advantage. In recent weeks, Russian troops have pressed into the eastern city of Kostiantynivka, part of a key defensive network in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

On July 3, Putin stated that Russian forces had taken Kostiantynivka, a claim Ukraine denied.

During a subsequent call with Trump, Putin reportedly expressed confidence that Russia would seize the remaining portion of the Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control.

According to the source who regularly meets with him, Putin views control of the region as a matter of principle, believing that securing such a victory is essential.