Why are European nations relocating their gold reserves from North America?
The Dutch central bank confirmed this week that it had shifted tonnes of the country’s gold reserves away from North America, saying the move would leave it “better prepared for severe crises”.
About 86 tonnes from roughly 313 tonnes previously held in the US and Canada were moved to London, citing rising geopolitical tensions. The aim was to ensure the gold would be easier to access should an emergency arise.
The announcement naturally raised questions. Why had the Netherlands chosen to act now? Did officials expect a major financial disruption?
Probably not, but the decision reflects the unsettled global environment. Trade disputes, armed conflicts and broader uncertainty are encouraging governments to review their reserves and make sure their gold is held in locations they consider dependable.
France had already said earlier this year that it was bringing gold reserves back from the US. Germany’s Bundesbank also repatriated more than 216 tonnes from foreign vaults over several years ending in 2016, including 111 tonnes from New York and 105 tonnes from Paris.
Such moves are not without precedent during periods of international tension. Research analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven of Goldman Sachs noted that several European central banks sent part of their gold to New York during the Cold War.
Joseph Cavatoni, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, told the BBC that conflicts and trade frictions were influencing some decisions, although they were not necessarily the main reason behind them.
Other considerations include inflation, interest-rate conditions and keeping bullion in a market where it can be bought or sold without delay.
“I don’t get a sense that there’s an impending doom,” Cavatoni said. Instead, he suggested central banks are becoming more knowledgeable about managing reserve assets, expanding those holdings and using them more effectively.
De Nederlandsche Bank said the gold taken from the US and Canada between March and August was now stored in the vaults of the Bank of England.
“We expect that we will never need to use them, but we do need to strengthen our resilience and preparedness,” said Olaf Sleijpen, governor of the Dutch central bank.
London was selected because of its role as one of the world’s leading gold-trading hubs. In a crisis, institutions seeking to buy or sell gold quickly often turn to the London market, making the Bank of England a preferred place to keep reserves.
The Bank is among the world’s biggest gold custodians. Its underground vaults beneath the historic central London building hold around 400,000 bars, with a value estimated at more than £200bn.
World Gold Council industry research indicates that the Bank of England remains the leading vaulting destination, although central banks are gradually spreading their holdings across a wider range of locations.
The question of where a country should keep its gold is becoming “increasingly top of mind for reserve managers”, Thomas and Struyven said.
Modern financial markets offer several ways to reposition bullion. The Dutch sold around 59 tonnes in New York and acquired additional holdings in London, avoiding the need to transport that portion across the Atlantic.
More than 27 tonnes, however, were physically moved from the US and Canada to Zeist in the Netherlands. A similar amount was then sent from Zeist to London.
Firms involved in cross-border gold transport reveal little about the practical details, but such operations require extensive planning, strict security and careful coordination to reduce every possible risk.
Cavatoni said that selling gold in one location and purchasing it in another is a common alternative to physical shipment. An institution holding metal in London but wanting exposure in New York could sell in London and buy in New York at the same time, effectively transferring its position without moving bars.
Only a small group of specialist companies handle international gold shipments. One of them, Brink’s Global Services, said it had experienced increased demand from central banks in recent years.
“Heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, along with gold’s growing role as a strategic reserve asset, appear to be contributing to this trend,” said Nader Antar, an executive vice president at Brink’s.
Gold storage has become a greater concern for central banks largely because they have been buying more of the metal. Yet holding it domestically can be expensive, according to Thomas and Struyven.
“Domestic storage requires investment in physical security, audit infrastructure, and insurance; costs that can be disproportionate for smaller central banks,” they said.
Central banks have purchased an average of about 1,000 tonnes of gold a year over the past four years, according to the World Gold Council. That is sharply higher than the roughly 500-tonne annual average seen during the previous decade.
The broader shift dates back to the global financial crisis, and demand is expected to remain strong over the coming year.
Gold has enjoyed a remarkable run in recent years. Prices climbed through a succession of record levels, rising above $5,000 an ounce in January.
Several forces have driven the increase, but one important factor is gold’s longstanding reputation as a safe-haven asset during financial stress and geopolitical instability, including periods marked by trade disputes and military conflict.
Inflation and interest rates also shape demand for the metal. Because gold is limited in supply and has held value for thousands of years, investors often view it as a way to protect wealth when prices are rising.
“Over the past half-century, gold prices have risen much faster than the Consumer Price Index,” according to investment bank Charles Schwab.
Although the price has retreated from the record reached earlier this year, it remains historically elevated.
Goldman researchers expect the price to reach $4,900 (£3,624) per troy ounce by the end of 2026, around $300 higher than its level in August.
Thomas and Struyven said continued central-bank buying is one of the major factors supporting the rise in gold prices.