As Israel-Iran conflict deepens, Ukraine braces for greater setbacks from Russia
Kyiv, Ukraine – A Persian term now evokes dread among millions of Ukrainians.
"Shahed" – sometimes rendered as Shaheed or Shahid and originally denoting “martyr” or “witness” in Islamic scripture – is now associated with the triangular, explosive-laden drones of Iranian origin that have become a grim feature of life in war-torn Ukraine.
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Currently built in the Russian city of Yelabuga in the Volga region, these drones are being improved with every wave of deployment, becoming faster, more precise, and increasingly deadly.
The newest versions recovered in Ukraine this month feature artificial intelligence to enhance target recognition, onboard video systems, and bidirectional communication for operator control.
“For Ukrainians, the name ‘Shahed’ now carries the same weight of horror as ‘Moscow’ or ‘Putin’,” said Denys Kovalenko, referencing the Russian president.
Kovalenko was injured by flying glass fragments when a Shahed detonated near his home in northern Kyiv last year.
The Shahed drones are among the most visible symbols of the growing military cooperation between Russia and Iran – a partnership under further scrutiny due to Israeli and US operations targeting Iran.
Beyond drones, Iran provides Russia with military supplies including ammunition, headgear, and body armor, according to expert Nikita Smagin, who studies Russia-Iran strategic ties.
However, Smagin notes that Iran’s influence in Russia’s war effort peaked in 2022, the year Russian forces initiated a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In response to sanctions, Russia has heavily invested in its defense sector and covert supply networks to acquire essential components like microchips and machinery for weapon production.
Historically, Moscow has often supplied Iran with advanced military technology such as missile systems and fighter jets, raising concerns in countries like Israel.
Back in 2009, then-Israeli President Shimon Peres reportedly traveled to Moscow to persuade Russian officials against delivering S-300 air defense systems to Iran.
Although Russia was expected to deliver Su-35 fighter jets to Iran earlier this year, the aircraft have yet to appear over Iranian skies.
Meanwhile, US arms commitments to Israel may be impacting aid promised to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on June 9 that Washington shifted a shipment of 20,000 anti-drone missiles originally designated for Ukraine.
“Without American support, we will face increased casualties,” Zelenskyy said during a broadcast address.
This shift in support is causing concern among Ukraine’s military leadership.
General Ihor Romanenko, a retired senior commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, stated that the weapons intended for Ukraine might now be redirected to conflict zones in the Middle East.
Romanenko also noted that while Russia and Iran publicly support each other, there is no binding military pact requiring mutual defense, limiting Russia’s ability to provide direct military help to Iran.
As such, Romanenko believes that while Russia will continue to supply Iran with arms, it is unlikely to engage in more aggressive support.
Potential arms deals could, however, provoke anger from former US President Donald Trump, who during his term demonstrated a less firm stance toward Russia and oversaw failed peace efforts between Kyiv and Moscow.
In the wake of Israeli and US strikes on Iran, Russia’s condemnations have led some observers to call out Moscow’s double standards, noting that its rhetoric mirrors criticisms previously directed at Russia’s own actions.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned the strikes as violations of international norms, claiming they undermined the United Nations Charter and Security Council resolutions.
Economic Rivalry Between Moscow and Tehran
Despite their strategic alliance, Russia and Iran are also competitors in the energy sector, both seeking to maintain their share of the Chinese oil market.
“The two countries are vying for China’s oil business, with Russia likely securing higher prices,” Smagin explained.
Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global oil transport, through its fleet of small naval vessels. If blocked, oil prices could surge – a scenario that would serve Russia’s interests by boosting revenue.
Nonetheless, Russia stretches its resources thin as it continues its costly war in Ukraine, diminishing its geopolitical stature in regions like the Middle East.
“Russia is losing influence and could be seen as a declining power in the region,” Smagin added.
If Iran fails to respond to diplomatic pressure from Trump’s administration to negotiate a peace agreement, the renewed US focus on the Middle East could spell trouble for Ukraine.
“A shift in US foreign policy priorities toward Iran and the Middle East poses a serious threat to Ukraine—it’s clearly a strategic setback,” said Kyiv-based political analyst Aleksey Kuschch.