In mid-October, Starlink connectivity in Ukraine’s combat zone was restricted, causing drone flights to halt and military operations to be suspended. According to reports, experts warn that the consequences could become even more serious. The worst-case scenario—a complete shutdown—could ultimately give Russia a major advantage in the war.

There is currently no full-scale alternative to Starlink. European efforts to build a comparable satellite network remain far from reaching the same capacity. In addition, many of those projects depend on Elon Musk’s aerospace company, SpaceX, to launch their satellites into orbit.

The report examines why Musk’s approach toward Ukraine appears to have shifted from broad support to open hostility, as well as what interests may be driving that change.

Financial interests

Musk’s company has earned hundreds of millions of dollars from Starlink terminals operating in Ukraine’s war zone, where more than 250,000 units are reportedly in use. It was previously reported that SpaceX, which operates Starlink, charged the Ukrainian government around $2,500 per month for each terminal and could suspend service when payments were not made.

US officials said that when American defense representatives asked SpaceX about service disruptions in Ukraine earlier this month, the company suggested switching to an expanded contract in order to restore access.

Starlink and Starshield

At the start of the war, Musk supplied Ukraine with thousands of Starlink antennas. They were installed at hospitals, power facilities, government offices, and other locations serving humanitarian needs. Before long, Ukrainian forces also began using the service to operate drones and maintain communications near the front line.

In late 2022, Musk announced the launch of Starshield, a service designed for military customers and priced far above ordinary Starlink access. In Ukraine’s case, the US government covered a substantial part of the costs, generating considerable revenue for Musk’s company. In return, the Pentagon gained greater control over Ukraine’s satellite access. Former US Deputy Defense Secretary Colin Kahl said this arrangement was intended to prevent Musk from simply turning the system off on his own.

However, Ukrainian troops largely did not transition to Starshield and continued relying on standard Starlink terminals. Maintaining those devices costs roughly $30 per month, while Starshield access can cost as much as $25,000 per terminal each month.

Starlink’s user agreement explicitly prohibits military use of the system. Yet Musk’s company did not strictly enforce that condition in Ukraine. A senior US military official said Ukrainian forces use Starlink for nearly everything, including drones, command coordination, and tactical communications on the battlefield.

The US government has not disclosed how many Starshield terminals have been supplied to Ukraine. Still, officials and experts say they represent less than one percent of all terminals operating in the combat zone. The rest are standard Starlink units.

This informal arrangement left Ukraine in a vulnerable position. To operate its drone fleet and stay connected near the front, the Ukrainian military had to rely on Starlink in ways that conflicted with the platform’s formal rules. Forces could obtain as many standard terminals as needed through foreign donors and commercial suppliers. They could be installed on drones and used near Russian positions without the same concern over cost. Starshield, by contrast, is far more expensive and is available only in limited quantities through official government channels.

Musk seeks greater profit

This spring, the US military used Starshield to control drones during operations connected with Iran. After learning of this, SpaceX reportedly raised the cost of Starshield services in that region from roughly $5,000 to $25,000 per terminal per month. The Pentagon agreed to pay the higher price.

A similar approach may be possible in Ukraine: limiting military use of Starlink could pressure Ukrainian forces and their foreign partners to move to the much more costly Starshield service. Musk’s explanation for the recent disruptions suggests that such an outcome may be acceptable to him, even if it creates new difficulties for Ukraine’s war effort.

For now, Ukrainian forces still have access through this gap in the system, and the service continues to operate. At the same time, the military understands that Musk could restrict their connectivity again at any moment, and that a future interruption could last much longer.

Starlink in Ukraine

In mid-October, Ukraine experienced problems with Starlink satellite communications and the military-focused Starshield system. SpaceX limited terminal speeds while in motion, affecting communications and the completion of certain missions.

On October 24, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced that Starlink and Starshield speeds had been restored, including for users moving at more than 400 kilometers per hour.

Elon Musk said that Starlink services in Ukraine had been restricted because, according to him, the country’s defense forces had violated the system’s terms of use.