BERLIN (AP) — German citizens are casting their votes on Sunday in a pivotal election shaped by concerns over prolonged economic stagnation, immigration pressures, and an increasingly uncertain outlook for Ukraine and Europe’s partnership with the United States. The center-right opposition is currently leading in the polls, while a far-right party is poised to achieve its highest results since the end of World War II.

As the European Union’s most populous member and a key NATO ally, Germany plays a crucial role in international decisions. It stands as Ukraine’s second-largest weapons donor after the U.S. and is expected to be a major force in determining how Europe confronts future geopolitical challenges, particularly in light of the confrontational international posture during the Trump administration.

On Sunday morning, key contenders–conservative favorite Friedrich Merz and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leader of the center-left Social Democrats–cast their votes just minutes apart in separate regions of the country.

What’s at stake in the election?

Out of a population of 84 million, over 59 million Germans are eligible to elect the 630 deputies of the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, whose chamber is housed beneath the iconic glass dome of Berlin’s Reichstag.

Germany’s mixed-member proportional voting system rarely results in a single-party majority. No party is anywhere close to such a margin this time either, making a coalition government inevitable. The process of forming this coalition is expected to take weeks or even months before the Bundestag selects the next chancellor.

This snap election, brought forward by seven months, was triggered by the sudden collapse of Scholz’s center-left coalition government in November after just three years. Fractures and internal disagreements plagued the administration, leading to widespread voter frustration and an overall lack of enthusiasm for any of the candidates.

Who are the leading contenders?

The center-right Union alliance led by Friedrich Merz is leading recent polls with support between 28% and 32%, positioning Merz as the likely successor to Scholz. The Social Democrats trail far behind, polling at around 14% to 16%, marking what could be their weakest performance in any federal election since World War II.

The right-wing, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged as the second most popular party, drawing around 20% support. This would surpass their previous record of 12.6% in the 2017 federal election. AfD has nominated co-leader Alice Weidel as its first-ever chancellor candidate. However, all major parties have ruled out forming a coalition with AfD—a policy often referred to as the “firewall.”

The Green party, led by outgoing Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, is also competing for the top office. However, they find themselves slightly behind Scholz’s Social Democrats in the polls.

Merz has accused the outgoing coalition of creating “chaos” and advocates for a return to stable governance. Yet it remains uncertain whether he can form a more effective coalition. While he prefers a two-party alliance, he may ultimately need to include a third partner.

The potential partners could include the Social Democrats, the Greens, or the pro-market Free Democrats. The latter party, previously part of Scholz’s coalition, is teetering on the edge of electoral viability and may struggle to reach the 5% threshold necessary for parliamentary representation.

Depending on the final results, the lack of strong performances by smaller parties might make a two-party coalition impossible, complicating post-election negotiations.

Key Issues Shaping the Campaign

Rescuing the German economy—a country that has seen contraction over the past two years and stagnation for even longer—is one of the main challenges for any new government. Parties have presented diverging strategies for how to fuel growth and innovation.

Immigration has surged as a central issue in recent weeks following several high-profile violent incidents involving migrants.

If elected, Merz has pledged tighter border controls and stricter deportation policies. He introduced a parliamentary resolution calling for significantly increased migrant rejections at the borders. Though nonbinding, the motion passed narrowly—with crucial support from the AfD—marking the first time their votes swayed a policy decision of this kind in postwar Germany.

This cooperation sparked criticism, with Scholz accusing Merz of political recklessness and of crossing a long-standing line regarding cooperation with the far right. Merz denied the allegations, insisting he has never collaborated with AfD and maintains his stance that his party will “never” do so.

On foreign policy, mainstream parties remain committed to aiding Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. With the Scholz-led government having met NATO’s defense spending goal of 2% of GDP, the incoming administration faces the challenge of sustaining—and potentially expanding—military funding beyond 2027, once a special €100 billion ($105 billion) modernization fund is exhausted, amid pressure from the United States.