Is Russia facing a shortage of weapons and troops in its war against Ukraine?

Is Russia facing a shortage of weapons and troops in its war against Ukraine?

Kyiv, Ukraine – In an unexpected shift, some Russian military units on Ukraine’s eastern front have begun using donkeys to transport supplies and ammunition, according to Russian soldiers and pro-war bloggers.

Retired Russian Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev reportedly defended the practice, calling it “standard procedure.”

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“It’s preferable to lose a donkey than the two soldiers who would otherwise have to transport the cargo in a vehicle,” Sobolev told the Gazeta.ru news outlet on February 6.

Over the past year, Russia has resorted to motorcycles, dirt bikes, scooters, and civilian vehicles for attacks on Ukrainian forces.

Analysts suggest that this shift highlights a broader issue: a dwindling capacity to sustain Russia’s already sluggish offensive in the key southeastern Donbas region.

The Decline of Armored Vehicles

According to military experts speaking to Al Jazeera, Ukrainian forces have destroyed a vast portion of Russia’s armored vehicles, including tanks.

Russia is struggling to replenish its fleet, even as it retrofits decades-old Soviet stockpiles of decommissioned tanks.

“Armored vehicles are being lost at an alarming rate,” said Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University.

He added that production and refurbishment efforts are failing to keep pace with losses, meaning Russia’s available armored vehicles for frontline use may last only “a few more months.”

Compounding the issue, Russia’s military faces significant difficulties in supplying frontline troops as Ukrainian drones target cargo trucks and supply convoys, Mitrokhin explained.

To counter explosive-laden drones, Russian soldiers have resorted to covering their tanks with metal cages, netting, and rubber sheets—an approach Ukrainians mockingly call “royal barbecues.”

Pavel Luzin, a defense analyst at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis, estimated that Russia can produce no more than 60 new tanks annually.

“We’re not talking about hundreds,” Luzin emphasized.

The main bottleneck, he explained, lies in manufacturing key components such as turrets and guns, as well as advanced electronics. Moscow has replaced once-European-made targeting systems with less reliable Chinese alternatives.

However, retired Ukrainian General Ihor Romanenko suggested Russia could maintain its armored fleet for “up to two years” at the current rate of losses.

“Defense plants are refurbishing old tanks from storage to piece together functioning vehicles,” said Romanenko, Ukraine’s former deputy chief of general staff.

“Given their current losses, that gives them about two years,” he estimated, adding that the proportion of modern armored vehicles in Russia’s arsenal will continue to decline.

Estimates suggest Russia has fewer than 7,000 operational armored vehicles—down from the Soviet Union’s stockpile of 140,000 in 1990, according to independent outlet The Insider.

The vehicle shortage may have already slowed Russia’s progress in Donbas.

By early February, Russia’s daily attack rate had declined by roughly a third, while the amount of territory captured shrank fourfold since January, according to Ukrainian analytical Telegram channel Oko Gora.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces took the offensive in certain areas, reclaiming pockets of land near the strategic city of Pokrovsk.

However, despite artillery shortages, Russia has significantly ramped up shell production, reaching an estimated annual output of 3 million shells. North Korea has reportedly supplied additional millions.

Pyongyang and Tehran have also sent hundreds of missiles, supplementing Russia’s own missile stockpile, which continues to bombard Ukrainian cities.

Yet, their overall effectiveness remains questionable.

For instance, a recent attack on Kyiv featured six Iskander missiles worth around $18 million, resulting in one death and four injuries.

Air Defense Struggles

The Russian-Ukrainian border stretches approximately 2,300 kilometers (1,430 miles).

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks now regularly strike deep into Russia, hitting military installations, air bases, and oil refineries from the Arctic to the Black Sea.

According to Mitrokhin, Moscow has been unable to establish a robust air defense network along the front lines.

Although Russia possesses powerful air defense systems and fighter jets, Lieutenant General Romanenko insisted that expanding these capabilities would take time.

Conversely, he noted that Ukraine’s capabilities in drone and missile production continue to grow, boosting its offensive potential.

‘Kamikaze Camels’

In addition to using donkeys for transport, Russia has drawn criticism for sending so-called “human camels” onto the battlefield—soldiers ordered to run towards Ukrainian positions carrying ammunition for advancing units.

These “carriers” and accompanying assault troops often face slim survival odds.

Pro-Kremlin war correspondents have lamented the mounting losses among experienced soldiers, noting that new recruits arrive after minimal training.

“Media portrayals of exemplary military service almost always involve a soldier dying in combat,” wrote Kremlin-aligned analyst Viktor Murakhovsky on Telegram on January 16. “The message being sent—whether intentionally or not—is that becoming a hero means dying heroically.”

Despite these mounting losses, the Kremlin insists that troop recruitment is not an issue. An estimated 600,000 Russian soldiers are currently engaged in Ukraine.

However, the financial incentives for enlistment have skyrocketed since 2022.

Recruitment bonuses now approach $30,000, while base salaries start at $2,000 per month. Compensation for severe injuries or lost limbs stands at around $40,000.

In an effort to avoid announcing a new mass mobilization, the Kremlin has reportedly pressured migrant workers and current soldiers nearing discharge to “voluntarily” extend their contracts.

Independent Russian outlet Verstka recently reported cases of soldiers being threatened with frontline deployment unless they signed contract extensions.

“They told us, ‘Either sign the contract today or we’ll send you straight into the next assault,’” one soldier told the publication.

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