The announcement of an agreement to halt hostilities between the United States and Iran has handed Donald Trump a timely political boost for his birthday – though the package comes with considerable uncertainty.

In a social media post celebrating the breakthrough, the US president stated that the Strait of Hormuz would once again be accessible to commercial shipping and that the United States would end its naval blockade.

"Let the oil flow!" Trump declared on Sunday.

He went on to argue that, unlike previous administrations, he had achieved a "great deal" that would deliver "peace and security to the whole region."

Such sweeping language is characteristic of Trump. His description of last year’s agreement ending the Gaza war – which he called “a peace for all eternity” and the “beginning of the age of faith and hope” – was similarly expansive, even though developments on the ground have not fully matched that optimism.

When it comes to diplomatic efforts of this scale, outcomes often depend on the fine print. In this case, many of those specifics have yet to be clarified.

Vice-President JD Vance said in a Sunday interview that a central condition of the agreement is that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon, adding that mechanisms would be in place to verify compliance.

Even so, significant questions remain unresolved, including the limits that will be imposed on uranium enrichment and the future of Iran’s existing stockpile of highly enriched material.

Some of these matters are expected to be addressed during follow-up negotiations and technical discussions scheduled to take place during a 60-day extension of the current ceasefire. However, decades of attempts to pressure or persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions suggest that assurances on paper do not automatically translate into lasting results, regardless of what is outlined in the memorandum of understanding.

Reinforcing that uncertainty, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement on Sunday indicating that final negotiations would be delayed until the other party’s commitments under the memorandum are implemented.

Exactly what those commitments entail – and how Tehran interprets them – will be critical in determining whether the agreement endures.

Energy analysts cautioned that oil shipments through the strait are unlikely to rebound instantly to pre-war volumes. Clearing the backlog of tankers, removing naval mines, and restoring normal production and shipping operations may take several weeks.

With a few days remaining before the formal signing, both sides still have an opportunity to iron out key provisions that could strengthen the agreement. At the same time, the window also allows for misunderstandings or disputes that could unravel it.

Israel remains another unpredictable factor.

The conflict has effectively involved three parties, and Trump reportedly expressed anger at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for authorising strikes in Lebanon over the weekend that he feared might jeopardise the near-finalised Iran agreement.

Although the deal held long enough to be announced publicly, renewed Israeli military action in Lebanon could prompt Iran to once again threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially destabilising the global economy.

In his remarks, Vance acknowledged the strain the conflict has placed on American households, particularly through rising energy costs and the broader economic ripple effects.

"My primary message to the American people is thank you," he said, while pledging that energy prices would begin to fall.

The pace at which prices decline – and how quickly that translates into lower overall consumer costs for families already under financial pressure – may prove politically significant ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Recent polling indicates growing public dissatisfaction. A survey found that a majority of Americans disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy, with many believing conditions are deteriorating.

At the very least, Sunday’s agreement could ease some of the economic tension created by the conflict. A noticeable drop in petrol prices would offer a concrete sign to voters that the situation is improving.

It marks a step toward restoring pre-war stability, even if the administration’s broader objectives remain unfinished and political challenges at home persist.