Sweden’s closely watched general election remains too tight to predict as ballots continue to be counted, with preliminary figures putting the centre-left opposition slightly ahead of the right-wing governing alliance.

Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson told supporters on Sunday that the opposition bloc was ahead in the count and said that, if the numbers hold, “Sweden will have a new government”.

Election Update

Voting stations closed at 8pm local time. With 94.4 percent of ballots counted, the Swedish Election Authority’s latest early-Monday figures indicated that the centre-left bloc could secure 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament, compared with 173 seats for the governing right-wing camp.

Even so, Andersson’s Social Democrats, Sweden’s largest party and a force in government through much of the 20th century, appeared set for their weakest result in more than 100 years. The party stood at 28.1 percent, a decline of 2.2 percentage points compared with the 2022 election.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, leader of the ruling coalition, said he would speak with other party leaders once the outcome is clearer. He stressed that the question of who will govern Sweden remains unresolved.

“Once we have the final figures, it makes sense to examine the possible combinations,” he said. Kristersson added that parliament has a clear majority outside the Social Democratic and left-wing camp, and that he would consider whether this could still produce a workable government.

Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Akesson said it would not be possible to determine the next government on election night. His party won 17.6 percent, nearly three points below its 20.5 percent result in 2022, slipping into third place behind Kristersson’s Moderate Party.

Votes arriving by post and ballots cast at Swedish embassies abroad will start being counted on Wednesday. Authorities are not expected to announce the final official result until later in the week.

Earlier in the campaign, the left-wing opposition appeared to be on course for a more comfortable victory over Kristersson’s four-party alliance, which includes the nationalist Sweden Democrats. Surveys at the start of the year showed the opposition ahead by around 10 percentage points. That margin narrowed gradually, however, falling to roughly two or three points in the final weeks and turning the election into a far more competitive race.

A win for Andersson would offer encouragement to centre-left and left-wing parties elsewhere in Europe, where conservative and far-right forces have made gains. Recent elections in several countries have highlighted the growing influence of right-wing parties and the increasingly fragmented nature of European politics.

The Sweden Democrats, whose early history included links to extremist movements, became the largest party on the right in 2022 and an essential parliamentary backer of Kristersson’s minority administration.

Until now, the party has not held cabinet posts. In April, Kristersson said his Moderate Party would be willing to govern alongside the Sweden Democrats if the right-wing bloc won a majority, potentially giving the party ministerial positions for the first time.