North Korean troops could potentially replace some Russian units on the Sumy or Kharkiv front, allowing those forces to redeploy toward the Lyman area. This was stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dated September 16.

According to ISW, a source reporting on the activities of Russia’s Northern Group of Forces said on September 16 that some Russian troops in northern Ukraine may leave their positions to reinforce Russian defenses near Lyman. The source claimed that North Korean personnel could take their place.

The source also alleged that certain North Korean officers had already operated “beyond the wire,” apparently referring to the international border, in order to gain experience and conduct reconnaissance.

“The source suggests that North Korean forces could enter Ukrainian territory as part of such a troop redeployment. ISW cannot verify the source’s claims and has not observed any indications of North Korean military activity in Ukraine,” the report said.

Analysts believe that any possible deployment of North Korean troops inside Ukraine would represent a major escalation in Pyongyang’s involvement in the war. Such a development could require the international community, including South Korea, to reconsider its current policy positions.

The source also reported a possible transfer of two Russian battalions to an area southeast of Sumy. These reportedly include battalions from the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment, which is under the operational control of Russia’s Northern Group of Forces, and may be moved to the settlement of Riasne.

North Korea’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine

Earlier reports indicated that North Korea could send tens of thousands of military personnel to Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Moscow may be preparing to receive up to 50,000 North Korean troops. Previous estimates had been lower, at roughly 30,000 personnel.

In August, Ukraine’s military intelligence service said North Korea had sent additional troops to Russia, bringing their number to around 8,500. The contingent reportedly includes a drone-control unit capable of carrying out attacks against targets in Ukraine.

Glenn Howard, head of the nonprofit Saratoga Foundation, has said that North Korea is involved in the war in Ukraine to an unprecedented degree. According to him, Pyongyang is using lessons from the battlefield to expand mass production of short- and medium-range strike drones. He believes North Korea could later use this tactical experience on the Korean Peninsula. “The partnership between Russia and North Korea is becoming a lasting operational alliance, and Pyongyang is likely expecting direct Russian assistance in the event of a future conflict on the Korean Peninsula,” the expert said.