During his last summit with Pacific Islands Forum leaders, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made headlines worldwide, standing knee-deep in the ocean off Tuvalu, clad in a suit and tie.

The cover of TIME magazine read “Our Sinking Planet,” as a solemn Guterres stared into the camera, stressing the dire existential threats Pacific nations face, largely due to the impacts of climate change.

Now, five years later, Guterres returns to the region for what is an increasingly urgent 53rd Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders Meeting. The annual gathering of key political and economic players in the region comes as the threats facing the Pacific intensify on various fronts.

In June, Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka spoke of a “polycrisis” in the Pacific, citing the intertwined challenges of climate change, human security, drug trafficking, and rising geopolitical tensions.

Next week’s summit will expect Pacific leaders to address these continuing issues, as well as the escalating crisis in New Caledonia, during the meeting in Nuku’alofa, Tonga. The small capital, with a modest population of 23,000, will host more than 1,000 international delegates from August 26-30.

In April, Tongan Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni warned against inactivity, urging for solid results rather than just policy discussions. He declared the meeting’s theme as “Build Better Now,” calling for a shift from debates to tangible action.

Sandra Tarte, a specialist in regional politics from the University of the South Pacific in Fiji, remarked that the meeting’s agenda is packed with ambitious goals.

“Urgency over climate change is growing,” she told Al Jazeera, “there’s also a deeper concern about potential escalations between global powers like the US, China, and others. Economically, the region is still recovering from the pandemic. We can't ignore drug trafficking either.”

“For the region to survive, we need something to guide our shared goals and identity,” Tarte continued.

@UN chief @antonioguterres stood in solidarity with families in Tuvalu on Friday. Their homes, and way of life, are endangered by rising seas. #ClimateAction can’t wait. “We must save Tuvalu – and save the planet”.

– UN News (@UN_News_Centre) May 17, 2019

Pacific leaders have placed their bets on the 2050 Strategy for a Blue Pacific Continent as the framework to address these manifold challenges.

Endorsed by the PIF in 2022, the strategy covers seven critical areas – justice, climate adaptation, economic growth, and security, among others. While it is touted as a blueprint for the region, some express concern that its expansive scope may diffuse its true impact.

“It outlines the Pacific’s priorities for the global stage,” Tarte explained. “But the danger, as with any large strategy, is that it tries to cover everything, and in the end, might accomplish little.”

A ‘crucial’ appearance

As Prime Minister Sovaleni sets the tone, the aim for PIF leaders is clear: progress must be made on the Pacific 2050 strategy, particularly around climate adaptation.

The group’s 18 member states, many comprising low-lying islands at risk of being submerged, are especially vulnerable to rising sea levels. Should current projections hold, vast swathes could be uninhabitable by mid-century.

A key element of their adaptation efforts is the Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF), designed to provide financial support to communities often overlooked by international aid organizations. Slated for launch in 2025, the entity is a Pacific-led, Pacific-owned initiative to bolster resilience against the devastating impacts of climate change.

While there is strong consensus to base the PRF in Tonga, the challenge remains financing it. The target is to raise $500 million by 2026. Thus far, $116 million has been pledged, with $100 million from Australia and a combined $16 million from the US, China, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.

Guterres’s presence at the summit could be pivotal, according to Kerryn Baker, a research fellow at the Australian National University specializing in Pacific affairs.

“It’s a Pacific-led climate fund, but the major hurdle has been external funding. Guterres can bring the international attention needed to bridge that gap between lofty ambitions and current capabilities,” Baker told Al Jazeera.

Meg Keen, senior fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Pacific program, echoed the sentiment. “His visit is significant. Guterres has influence, and if he draws attention to the PRF, it will increase external support,” she explained.

“For Pacific nations, climate change represents the biggest security threat,” Keen added. “They're pushing hard for PRF to get off the ground, and having the UN chief behind them aids that pressure.”

The region’s drug trade dilemma

In addition to climate challenges, drug trafficking remains a pressing issue on the summit’s agenda. The Pacific islands have long acted as a conduit for narcotics smuggling operations that span from Asia and the Americas to markets in Australia and New Zealand.

An oversupply of drugs and a rise in cheaper alternatives have led to increased drug use within the islands themselves. Countries like Fiji have been hard-hit by this growing crisis.

“Everywhere we go, drug trafficking is a major concern,” Keen noted. “Law enforcement is stretched thin. It’s not just transiting drugs, but local communities are now grappling with addiction too.”

To combat this, the Pacific Policing Initiative (PPI), an Australian proposal, seeks to provide training to island police forces. A centerpiece of the initiative is a planned policing academy in Brisbane, designed to prepare local officers for deployment to areas struggling with drug-linked crime.

The initiative has been presented as responding to needs identified by Pacific countries, but some experts suggest its goals are more complex. Alongside enhancing regional security, it aims to preserve Australia’s influence as China continues to strengthen ties with Pacific law enforcement.

While Australia is keen for Pacific nations to endorse the PPI at the Leaders Meeting, the initiative comes with a hefty AU$400 million ($270 million) price tag – and there are concerns it overlaps with existing agreements.

“Many see the initiative as more symbolic than practical,” said Tarte. “There’s interest, but also tension. Critics suggest it was developed with limited input from the region, making it redundant in places.”

She added, “It’s a case of external partners pushing projects that may absorb resources without clear benefits on the ground. Too often, it’s about exerting influence rather than genuinely helping.”

‘Oceans of Peace’ concept

As geopolitical competition escalates, Pacific leaders are calling for a more peaceful approach. The region has become a pivotal area for global powers, with Beijing making inroads while the US and Australia work to maintain their influence.

Fiji’s Prime Minister Rabuka, acknowledging the growing tensions, has championed the “Oceans of Peace” proposal, which he describes as a return to Pacific diplomacy grounded in humility and dialogue.

“An Ocean of Peace should reflect Pacific values... Humility, gentle leadership, communication,” he said. His hope is to introduce this concept at the summit, with a view toward regional adoption in the future.

Though still in its conceptual phase, Baker notes that there is “growing backing” for the proposal. She emphasized that leaders will need “clarity on what the idea entails and how it can be effectively implemented.”

“For significant progress, we’ll need real specifics on what an Ocean of Peace means for the Pacific,” Baker stated.

Rabuka’s vision taps into a broader effort by Pacific nations to escape the geopolitical framing often imposed on them and assert greater agency over their futures.

Keen remarked, “There’s frustration among Pacific leaders that broader powers are prioritizing geopolitics over the region’s development. In these forums, the focus has to be on the advancement of Pacific Islanders, not on global power struggles.”

The situation in New Caledonia serves as a stark reminder of these concerns. Since being admitted to the PIF in 2016 as a full member, tensions have risen over France’s plans to provide voting rights to recent settlers, leading to protests that Indigenous populations fear will diminish their influence. The resulting unrest has led to deaths and significant economic damage.

While the issue is significant, Pacific leaders have limited influence over France’s actions. “They can voice their concerns, but ultimately, it’s a sovereign matter,” Keen explained.

“Still, they won’t stay quiet,” she continued. “Pacific leaders will push for an end to colonialism and strive for self-sovereignty, ensuring Pacific voices are heard.”