LAKE KARIBA, Zambia (AP) — Tindor Sikunyongana is working hard to keep his welding business afloat. These days, that means relying on a diesel generator, but with the price of fuel climbing, it’s becoming harder for him to keep going.

Like many in Zambia, Sikunyongana is caught in the grips of a worsening energy crisis caused by climate change. The entire southern region of Africa is suffering, and Zambia is facing an unprecedented shortage of electricity.

“Only God knows when this will end,” Sikunyongana says, as his generator begins sputtering and dies — out of fuel. “You see what I mean?” he adds, gesturing helplessly.

Tindor Sikunyongana welds using a diesel generator in Lusaka, Zambia, Monday, Sept. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

The crippling power outages—among the worst Zambia has seen—are a result of an extreme drought that has decimated the water levels of Kariba Dam. This dam, which is pivotal for Zambia’s power, can no longer provide sufficient water for its hydroelectric turbines. Kariba is the world’s largest man-made lake by volume, stretching 200 kilometers (125 miles) along the border between Zambia and Zimbabwe, south of the capital Lusaka.

Built in the 1950s, this dam was designed to revolutionize the region's power supply, capturing the Zambezi River and turning a valley into a massive lake to generate clean, renewable electricity. More than 80 workers tragically died during the construction. What was once a promise of endless power is now faltering in the face of a crisis.

The dam has been brought to its knees by a combination of an El Niño-induced drought and rising temperatures, both effects of climate change. For the first time, the hydroelectric plant is on the verge of total shutdown.

With water levels disastrously low, only one of Zambia's six turbines is functioning, reducing the output to less than 10% of the usual production. Given that Kariba provides over 80% of Zambia’s electricity, the result is widespread blackouts that leave residents with only a few hours of electricity on good days, and none for days on end in some areas.

Patrons at a restaurant charge electronic devices at Mercato Cafe in Lusaka, Zambia, Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

Edla Musonda, fed up with the inconsistent electricity, now carries her desktop computer — monitor, hard drive, and all — to a local café. Like many others, she’s chosen the Mercato Café not for its food or ambience but for its diesel-powered generator. Inside, the tables are scattered with power strips and tangled cords as patrons plug in laptops, phones, and even home offices like Musonda’s, in a desperate attempt to survive the power crisis.

The sun rises near Kariba Dam in Siavonga, Zambia, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

Even before the drought affected Kariba, less than half of Zambia’s 20 million citizens had reliable access to electricity. As the situation worsens, millions more are now left to navigate life in the dark. Families cook with alternative means, and children attempt schoolwork by candlelight. But small businesses, a critical piece of Zambia’s economy, are the hardest hit, especially during daylight hours.

“This will worsen poverty in the country,” warns Trevor Hambayi, an economist, expressing concern that Zambia’s economy could shrink significantly if the power cuts continue. He also stresses the importance of diversifying energy sources, cautioning against dependence on one climate-sensitive solution.

A woman collects water from a hole dug in a dried riverbed in Lusitu, Zambia, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

The energy shortage, Hambayi says, is proving to be a bigger burden on the country’s economy than even the lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation in Zambia highlights a vulnerability faced by much of Africa, which contributes the least to global climate change yet suffers the most severe consequences. This year’s drought is regarded as one of the worst in decades, drying crops and leaving millions in need of food—and leading Zambia and other nations to declare national emergencies.

Hydroelectric power currently accounts for 17% of energy generation in Africa, yet forecasts predict this share will rise to 23% by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. Many African nations, including Mozambique, Malawi, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Congo, are heavily dependent on the same, even as warnings grow that hydroelectric power will become less reliable due to worsening climate conditions.

“Prolonged droughts and shifting weather patterns clearly show that relying heavily on hydroelectricity is no longer feasible,” says Carlos Lopes, a professor at the Mandela School of Public Governance at the University of Cape Town, South Africa.

A worker fills containers with water at a station in Bauleni Township, Lusaka, Zambia, Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

The government of Zambia has pushed for more investment in solar power, urging citizens and businesses to adopt renewable energy. However, the high cost of solar technology is out of reach for many, and even the government is resorting to diesel generators to keep essential services such as hospitals running. Zambia is also increasing its dependence on coal-powered stations out of necessity, following in the footsteps of neighboring Zimbabwe, which similarly faces Kariba’s reduced output but compensates with coal plants.

At Kariba, the towering 128-meter-high (420-foot) dam is a shell of its former self. A rusty, reddish-brown stain marks where the water level once stood, far above today’s drought-ravaged landscape.

Baobab trees stand in Chirundu, Zambia, Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

Leonard Siamubotu, who’s spent more than 20 years leading boat tours on Lake Kariba, talks of the dramatic change. “I’ve never seen this tree before,” he says, pointing to a once-submerged dead tree that now rises from the middle of the lake, a ghost from the dam’s early years that the dropping water levels have revealed.

Normally, the water should rise by six meters after the rainy season, but this year, it has increased by less than 30 centimeters, authorities report. There’s hope that the upcoming rains, starting in November, will be plentiful. Yet, even under the best circumstances, experts believe it will take at least three years of good rains to bring Kariba back to its full hydroelectric power capacity.

But there is no certainty. The rains may never come, and relying on unpredictable weather is a risky gamble, especially since Zambia has dealt with drought-induced power shortages before—and the situation only continues to worsen.

“We can’t just sit back and wait for nature to fix this,” Hambayi says.

Moses Mngumi rolls a drum of water to his home at Bauleni Township in Lusaka, Zambia, Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

___

Associated Press journalist Taiwo Adebayo in Abuja, Nigeria contributed to this report.

___

For more updates on Africa and development, visit: AP News Africa Pulse

___

The Associated Press receives financial support for global health and development coverage in Africa from the Gates Foundation. AP is solely responsible for all content. More details on AP’s guidelines for working with philanthropies, as well as a list of funders, can be found at AP.org.

___

The Associated Press’ climate coverage is supported by multiple private foundations. Visit AP.org for information on content and funding guidelines.