Could Biden’s antitrust fight transform into 'Let’s Make a Deal' with Trump?
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — The aggressive stance against Big Tech, bolstered by U.S. antitrust enforcers during President Joe Biden’s tenure, might ease significantly if Donald Trump reclaims the Oval Office next year.
Though major tech companies like Google and Facebook came under intense scrutiny even during Trump’s first term, experts suggest that a potential second Trump administration will likely dial back on strict antitrust actions, favoring more lenient handling of mergers and acquisitions after the rigorous policies under Biden.
Central to this predicted shift is the assumption that the chief enforcers of Biden’s antitrust push — Lina Khan, chairwoman of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), and Jonathan Kanter of the Justice Department — will no longer be part of the power structure under Trump.
Requests for comment from the Justice Department and FTC were left unanswered.
The recent appointment of billionaire Elon Musk, who once dubbed himself “Technoking,” to oversee a new advisory initiative focused on cutting government costs, could further decrease the influence of regulatory bodies. These agencies have been working to keep large companies, particularly in tech, in check.
Adding to the uncertainty, Trump’s nomination of ardent ally Matt Gaetz as U.S. Attorney General may point to potential changes in how antitrust enforcement is handled. Gaetz has previously criticized social media platforms for suppressing conservative voices, even advocating at times for the breakup of Big Tech. His history as a Trump loyalist further fuels the unpredictability.
“There will be significant shifts in antitrust enforcement,” predicts John Kwoka, a Northeastern University economist who has worked with both the FTC and the Justice Department. “Musk could have unprecedented influence, something we haven’t seen before — a single figure influencing policy in this way at the highest level.”
Many experts the Associated Press spoke with echoed Kwoka’s thoughts. However, they also noted it would be unlikely for regulators to completely abandon ongoing antitrust cases against Big Tech, particularly as these cases align with broader public concerns surrounding the tech industry’s ever-expanding influence.
“We’re in unfamiliar waters,” said Rebecca Allensworth, a Vanderbilt University law professor who monitors antitrust developments. “But the momentum against Big Tech certainly hasn’t disappeared.”
However, Trump’s potential return to leadership could open the door for tech giants like Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook to avoid lengthy court confrontations and instead seek settlements with a president known for his penchant for deal-making.
“Maybe Big Tech will need to consult ‘The Art of the Deal’ to better position themselves with this new administration,” suggested Paul Swanson, an antitrust attorney at Holland & Hart. “I wouldn’t be shocked to see more negotiated outcomes—consent decrees, rather than drawn-out legal action.”
While there’s still speculation around ongoing antitrust cases, the consensus is that Trump’s administration will be more open to mergers, a common business move tied to cost savings and other advantages for consumers.
“There’s potential for a boom in deals among tech companies, both public and private, for the next 12 to 18 months,” commented Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, in a recent report following Trump's reelection.
The same sentiment has been prominent among investors, pushing the stock market to new heights after Election Day. Shares of companies awaiting deals initiated under Biden have also surged. One such merger, between Capital One Financial and Discover, exemplifies this trend, bolstered in value by 11% and 16%, respectively, as they prepare for a potential stock-swap merger in the coming year.
The new administration could also impact the controversial $24.6 billion merger deal between Kroger and Albertsons, America’s two largest grocery chains. The FTC had previously filed a lawsuit in an attempt to block this merger, accusing it of reducing competition and raising prices. However, the companies claim the combined force would help them compete better against retail giants like Walmart.
Even with consumer anger over inflation and rising grocery costs, Allensworth believes Trump’s administration might still continue the FTC’s opposition to the Kroger-Albertsons merger.
In another high-profile case garnering public attention, the Justice Department is fighting to disband Ticketmaster’s parent company, Live Nation, citing concerns that monopolistic practices are driving up event ticket prices.
Despite the wide support for action against Live Nation, the company’s executives are optimistic about their prospects under a Trump administration.
“We expect a return to a more traditional antitrust approach with less government intervention in the business sphere,” stated Live Nation President Joe Berchtold during a recent conference call with investors, buoyed by the election results.
Deals that suffered setbacks under Biden's presidency might get a new lease on life under Trump. For instance, American Airlines and JetBlue are contemplating revisiting their partnership, which was previously halted by Biden’s antitrust team and subsequently upheld by a Boston appeals court.
“We’re still reviewing the situation,” commented American Airlines CEO Robert Isom post-election. “We’ll take into account everything the court provided in terms of feedback.”
Such reviews are likely taking place across the business world, as firms assess whether deals, shelved under Biden, now make sense under Trump, speculated Colin Kass, an antitrust attorney at Proskauer Rose.
“It’s highly probable that transactions previously avoided due to antitrust concerns will be reconsidered,” Kass said. “If these deals still hold financial value, they’ll go back to the DOJ. And if changes are needed, it’s more likely they’ll be adjusted rather than outright blocked. It’s worth exploring the potential to push these deals through.”
The Trump administration’s first antitrust case against Google, focused on its search engine dominance, now rests in the hands of a federal judge. In August, Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Google illegally maintains a monopoly. The next decision focuses on appropriate penalties, expected by August of next year.
In a recent filing, the Justice Department hinted it may recommend breaking up components of Google to restore competitive balance.
This Wednesday, the Justice Department will release its final submission on the matter, likely the last chance for Kanter and his team to advocate for their position before Trump’s potential return. Nevertheless, a new Trump-appointed antitrust team could reverse course during hearings on penalties next spring.
“It’s frustrating to watch,” said Kwoka. “The need for a stricter policy was long overdue after 20 years of unchecked behavior from tech firms. It was clear it would take more than four years to fully implement these policies and demonstrate their value. Now, that effort could be derailed.”
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AP Business Writers Dee-Ann Durbin and Dave Koenig contributed to this report.