With just a single day remaining, the contest for the White House teeters on a knife-edge—both at the national level and especially in the crucial battleground states.

Surveys show an incredibly tight race, hovering within the margin of error, meaning Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could easily be two or three points ahead—enough to secure a clear victory.

There's a strong argument for why either candidate might have the upper hand in building a winning coalition in key areas and ensuring those voters head to the polls.

Let's begin with the potentially historic moment of an ousted president being re-elected—something that hasn’t occurred in over 130 years.

• Harris v Trump latest poll standings

• Live updates from the campaign's climax

For voters, the economy is top of mind. Despite low unemployment and a thriving stock market, many Americans feel the pinch of rising costs.

Post-pandemic inflation has reached heights not seen since the '70s, giving Trump the opportunity to ask, “Are you better off now than four years ago?”

Globally, voters have several times ousted the party in power in the face of rising living costs after Covid-19. The U.S. appears no different, as Americans increasingly seek change.

Only one-quarter of Americans express satisfaction with the nation’s direction. Meanwhile, two-thirds hold grim economic views.

Although Harris wants to be seen as the “change” candidate, her role as vice-president to an unpopular Joe Biden has complicated that narrative.

Despite fallout from the Jan. 6th Capitol riot, numerous legal hurdles, and even a criminal conviction, Trump’s base has held firm above 40%.

While Democrats and some Republicans (dubbed “Never-Trumpers”) argue he’s unfit for the presidency, most GOP members back Trump’s claim of being the target of political persecution.

Given the polarized atmosphere, Trump only needs to sway a narrow segment of undecided voters who remain open to his candidacy.

Beyond economic concerns, emotional issues often drive election outcomes.

Democrats hope it will be abortion; Trump bets on immigration being the key topic.

As immigration surges reached historic highs under Biden, even impacting states well beyond the southern border, polls suggest voters lean towards Trump on the issue—particularly among Latino voters, where he’s seeing stronger support than in prior races.

Trump’s appeal to disenfranchised voters, particularly blue-collar workers, has upended political norms in the U.S., reshaping former Democratic strongholds into Republican territory.

If he energizes turnout in rural and suburban regions of swing states, Trump could offset his losses in more educated, moderate GOP bastions.

Critics claim Trump’s foreign policy undermines U.S. alliances by cozying up to authoritarian figures.

Trump counters this with claims that his unpredictability serves as an advantage, noting the lack of major wars during his presidency.

Many Americans, for various reasons, are displeased with the massive U.S. aid sent to Ukraine and Israel, believing Biden has weakened the nation's global standing.

A majority, particularly men—whom Trump has courted through outlets like the Joe Rogan podcast—see Trump as more of a decisive leader compared to Harris.

Yet despite Trump’s strengths, he remains a divisive figure.

Back in 2020, Trump gained more votes than any previous Republican, yet fell short by seven million as voters rallied behind Biden.

In response, Harris has amplified a sense of urgency about a potential Trump resurgence, labeling him a “fascist” and a threat to democracy, pledging instead to steer the nation beyond "drama and conflict."

A July Reuters/Ipsos poll found that four in five Americans believe the nation is spiraling out of control. Harris hopes this perception positions her as the candidate of stability for moderate Republicans and independents.

As Biden withdrew, Democrats initially faced what seemed a certain defeat. However, they swiftly threw their weight behind Harris, uniting behind a shared goal: keeping Trump out of office. Her platform caught fire quickly, rebooting the campaign with a fresher, forward-looking strategy that re-energized the base.

Republicans have attempted to tie her to Biden’s unpopular policies, but Harris has sidelined some of their key attack points relevant to him directly.

Among the clearest examples is the issue of age—polls consistently showed concern over Biden’s fitness for office. Now, with Harris as the frontrunner, the script has flipped, and it’s Trump who could become the oldest president to ever hold office.

This election also carries extra weight as the first since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Harris enjoys overwhelming support from voters concerned with preserving abortion rights, and previous elections—including the 2022 midterms—have proven that abortion can drive voter turnout and significantly impact results.

This time, 10 states, including swing-state Arizona, will have abortion-related ballot initiatives, potentially boosting turnout in Harris’s favor.

Her campaign to become the nation’s first female president has further solidified her significant lead among women voters.

The demographics Harris thrives with—college-educated individuals and the elderly—are also more likely to vote.

Democrats generally perform better with high-turnout demographics, whereas Trump has gained traction with lower-turnout groups, such as younger men and non-college-educated voters.

For example, Trump leads significantly among those who were registered but didn’t vote in 2020, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.

The big question is: will they turn out this time?

No secret—America’s elections are expensive, and 2024 promises to be the priciest one yet.

Yet, when it comes to fundraising, Harris holds the edge. According to a Financial Times analysis, she has raised more since taking charge in July than Trump has since the start of 2023. Her campaign has also spent nearly twice as much on advertising.

In a race this close, every dollar spent targeting voters in swing states could make all the difference.

• QUICK GUIDE: US election dates and how the process works

• BREAKDOWN: What a Harris or Trump presidency could mean

• GLOBAl VIEW: How soldiers at Ukraine’s frontlines view the vote

• ROAD TO 270: Key states and why they matter

• PERSPECTIVE: The contrasting lives of Harris and Trump in photos

• POLLS: Tracking the race to the White House

• VIDEO: What “MAGA” means to Trump’s supporters today

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher offers regular insights into this high-stakes race with his twice-weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can subscribe here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.