Trump's trade duties drive food and beverage sellers toward China
US President Donald Trump has stated that his broad tariffs on international imports are designed to stimulate job creation at home, strengthen the national economy, and contribute to federal revenues through increased duties.
However, several analysts have cautioned that these measures might encourage exporters to direct their business to other countries such as China, potentially causing prices to climb for American consumers.
According to agricultural brokers interviewed by the BBC, there has been notable growth in interest from exporters considering deals with China, a consequence of shifting global trade dynamics.
Brazil, the largest coffee producer globally, has been subject to a steep 50% import tariff imposed by the United States.
This significant duty may reduce the appeal of the US market for Brazilian exporters, potentially driving them to explore more welcoming markets elsewhere.
Hugo Portes, a logistics and supply chain expert, told the BBC that China’s expanding coffee culture and vast consumer base now make it an increasingly attractive destination for Brazil’s coffee industry.
"Instead of weakening Brazil, these tariffs are encouraging closer trade ties with China," said Mr. Portes, who specializes in the international trade of raw coffee beans.
Brazil is currently looking for alternative buyers for roughly eight million coffee bags formerly sold to US roasters, as the country supplies about one-third of America’s coffee imports.
In anticipation of the tariffs, over 180 Brazilian coffee businesses registered for export permits to China in July alone.
This surge in registration was described as "unprecedented" by Mr. Portes, who suggested that it could pave the way for a broader entry of Brazilian firms into the Asian market.
Brazilian producers had also finalized a billion-dollar agreement last year with Luckin Coffee, a major Chinese coffee chain.
Fernanda Pizol, whose family runs Daterra Coffee, said their farm plans to increase sales to China and other international markets amid potential declines in US demand.
She noted that many American clients have paused shipments as they assess the financial implications of the new tariffs.
Pizol added that demand from Chinese buyers has grown steadily, while their exports to Japan and Europe have also performed well.
"We must broaden our reach... There's already a waiting list of interested buyers," she explained.
Nonetheless, US coffee roasters may soon see the price of a five-pound (2.268 kg) bag of Brazilian beans climb by about 25%, predicted coffee industry specialist Luke Waite.
He estimated that this could result in a price hike of up to 7% per cup of coffee, assuming cafés absorb some of the added expenses.
"It may not seem like much, but those extra costs build up quickly over time," Waite said.
In India, which also faced a 50% tariff from the US as of August, exporters of products like tea and seafood are considering shifting focus to the Chinese market.
India has come under trade pressure from Washington, partially due to its oil trade with Russia. The US levied a 25% penalty on Indian goods as well, a move Delhi has described as excessive.
Many American customers have postponed new purchases of items like prawns, according to K N Raghavan, secretary-general of India's Seafood Exporters Association.
He expressed concern that smaller US purchasers might abandon seafood altogether during these uncertain times.
"It's a challenging period," he acknowledged, but remained hopeful that ongoing discussions with the US would soon have a positive outcome.
Raghavan explained that more Indian seafood is now likely to head to China, the next largest buyer after the US.
He added that Europe could become a promising market as well, with free trade negotiations between India and the EU underway.
Mohit Agarwal of Asian Tea and Exports also pointed out that China is the most viable market to target going forward.
Still, he expressed concerns that Indian businesses could be undercut by African competitors providing similar quality goods at more affordable rates.
Some American companies have admitted struggling to adapt to the changing trade regulations, pointing out that domestic production of goods like prawns and coffee is not always feasible.
One major seafood trade group in the US has even requested tariff exemptions, emphasizing the nation's high reliance on imports and the limited supply in its own coastal waters.
Retail giant Walmart has indicated that it might soon increase prices due to the tariffs. While the company has absorbed rising costs so far, it anticipates additional burdens ahead.
Many industry insiders and economists have suggested that the financial impact of Trump's tariffs will, at least partially, be passed down to consumers in the US through higher prices.
Despite the challenges, Indian exporter Abuthahir Aboobakar said his American clients have continued to place orders, which gives him confidence in the resilience of his business.
Mr. Aboobakar, who manages sales at Jeelani Marine Products, explained that US buyers are still purchasing despite the 50% tariff—because they cannot afford empty shelves or lack of supply.
"They’re still committing to deals, tariffs and all," he said.
With customers in over 60 global markets, Mr. Aboobakar mentioned that his company is already well-positioned to shift its focus if necessary.
"We’ve diversified our markets," he said. "Going forward, China and Europe will account for a larger percentage of our exports. That’s the path ahead."