Who might take up the mantle as the next leader of the Catholic Church? The answer carries deep significance for over 1.4 billion baptised Catholics worldwide.

The selection process is unpredictable and open-ended, shaped by a mixture of traditions, shifting church demographics, and modern challenges.

Cardinals from around the globe will gather in the Sistine Chapel for the secretive conclave, repeatedly voting until a consensus emerges around a single candidate.

With 80% of those voting having been chosen by Pope Francis, the conclave marks a moment of transition—not merely in leadership, but in reflecting a more international church.

This will also mark the inaugural occasion where a minority of voting cardinals are from Europe, a notable historical shift.

Despite being Francis's appointees, the cardinals reflect a wide range of theological and ideological standpoints, rather than a single doctrinal leaning.

As such, this makes identifying the frontrunner for the papacy exceptionally challenging.

Will tradition prevail with a veteran from the Vatican, or could the next pontiff hail from previously unrepresented continents such as Africa or Asia?

Here are several names being discussed in connection with succeeding Pope Francis.

Pietro Parolin

Nationality: Italian

Age: 70

Cardinal Parolin, a reserved and diplomatic figure, served as Secretary of State under Pope Francis, effectively making him second in command. Leading the Vatican’s central administration, he's been at the heart of Church operations.

Due to his senior role, many view him as a leading candidate.

He emphasizes diplomacy and a global approach over rigid theological lines. Supporters admire this vision; critics see it as a compromise.

He has voiced strong opposition to same-sex marriage, calling Ireland’s 2015 approval vote "a defeat for humanity."

Though considered a favourite among betting circles, the old saying lingers: “The one who goes in as Pope, comes out as a cardinal.”

Despite 213 previous popes being Italian, shifting global currents in the Church may work against the emergence of another Italian pontiff for now.

Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle

Nationality: Filipino

Age: 67

Could Asia be the source of the next pope?

Cardinal Tagle, a pastoral leader rather than a Vatican bureaucrat, hails from the Philippines—a country where the Catholic Church plays a prominent role among its predominantly Catholic population.

With five cardinals in the College, the Philippines could offer him substantial support.

A moderate voice, Tagle has been called the "Asian Francis" for his compassion toward migrants and marginalized groups.

He condemns abortion and euthanasia, aligning with traditional Catholic principles.

In 2015, he proposed the Church take a more empathetic stance toward LGBTQ individuals, divorcees, and single mothers, suggesting previous rigidity had caused long-term harm.

Tagle's name surfaced as a contender even in 2013. When asked then about the possibility, he quipped: “I find the idea amusing!”

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

Nationality: Congolese

Age: 65

African leadership within the Church is rising, and Cardinal Ambongo stands as a key figure from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

He has led the Kinshasa archdiocese for seven years and was made cardinal by Pope Francis.

His views are considered conservative, especially regarding issues like same-sex unions, which he has criticized as “intrinsically evil.”

Despite facing persecution from extremist groups in the DRC, Ambongo champions religious coexistence, calling for respect across faiths while maintaining individual identities.

Some wonder whether this more cooperative tone aligns with the Church's evangelistic goals.

Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson

Nationality: Ghanaian

Age: 76

Should his fellow cardinals choose him, Cardinal Turkson could mark the return of an African pope for the first time in 1,500 years.

Despite being considered papabile in 2013, he downplayed the idea, stating no one really seeks the papacy.

He argued that Church leadership shouldn't be dictated by demographics alone.

The first Ghanaian cardinal, appointed in 2003, Turkson has enjoyed longstanding influence. Known for his vigor and love for music, he's often remembered for his days in a funk band.

While generally conservative, he has opposed anti-LGBTQ legislation in Ghana, arguing that homosexuality shouldn't be criminalized.

He once sparked controversy over comments about Islam’s spread in Europe, later offering apologies.

Peter Erdo

Nationality: Hungarian

Age: 72

Appointed a cardinal at just 51, Erdo is well respected across European and African Church networks.

As Archbishop of Budapest, he worked to build relations with the Eastern Orthodox Church and led Europe’s bishops for a decade.

Coming from a background shaped under communism, he is seen as someone fostering dialogue yet rooted in conservative teachings.

Erdo played a key role during Francis's visits to Hungary and took part in the conclaves that chose both Pope Benedict and Pope Francis.

His views on family are traditional, and he navigated Hungary’s political landscape carefully, especially during the migrant crisis when he argued Church support of migrants could be akin to trafficking.

Angelo Scola

Nationality: Italian

Age: 83

Though over the voting age threshold of 80, Scola remains a possible selection.

Once seen as a leading contender in 2013, he may have succumbed to the age-old lore—those favored too early often don't make it.

He re-emerged in discussions recently after releasing a book on aging with a heartfelt preface penned by Pope Francis.

Although respected and cherished by Francis, Scola’s focus on aging may not align with visions of a forward-looking papacy among the cardinals.

Reinhard Marx

Nationality: German

Age: 71

Germany’s highest-ranking church figure has been at the Vatican's core, selected early in Francis’s papacy as a key adviser.

He has been instrumental in proposing Church reforms and continues to oversee Vatican finances.

He supports greater inclusivity for LGBTQ individuals within Church teachings.

In 2021, he offered to resign due to mishandling abuse cases in Germany—a gesture Pope Francis declined.

After stepping down from the Pope's primary advisory body in 2022, some believe his influence may be waning.

Marc Ouellet

Nationality: Canadian

Age: 80

Seen as papabile in both 2005 and 2013, Cardinal Ouellet has long occupied key roles, including heading the department that manages bishop nominations worldwide.

Now over 80, he cannot vote in the conclave, which might diminish his chances.

Still, Ouellet is recognized as a doctrinal conservative with a modern sensibility. He endorses priestly celibacy and opposes female ordination, while encouraging stronger female roles in Church leadership.

Robert Prevost

Nationality: American

Age: 69

Could an American pope finally emerge?

Chicago-born Cardinal Prevost is widely respected and was entrusted by Pope Francis to lead the bishops’ selection process worldwide.

His missionary work and eventual archbishop role in Peru provide him international credibility.

Though deeply tied to the U.S., his work with the Latin American Pontifical Commission gives him broader appeal.

However, at 69, some may deem him too youthful, and his record in Peru has faced scrutiny over alleged mishandling of abuse cases—claims that have been denied.

Robert Sarah

Nationality: Guinean

Age: 79

A champion for tradition, Cardinal Sarah is well regarded among conservative clerics.

Appointed archbishop at age 34, he later ran the Vatican office overseeing liturgical practices, retiring in 2021.

While perhaps not leading the pack, his strong orthodoxy may resonate with more traditional members of the College of Cardinals.

Michael Czerny

Nationality: Canadian

Age: 78

A Jesuit like Pope Francis, Czerny has devoted his life to work in marginalized communities, particularly in Latin America and Africa.

Though born in Czechoslovakia, he was raised in Canada and has led humanitarian efforts while promoting social justice.

Popular among progressive factions, he currently heads the Vatican office focused on human development.

Despite his qualifications, it's considered unlikely two Jesuits will be elected consecutively to the papacy.